It's been awhile since my last post here on this blog and the main reason is that I decided to stop sharing picks for free. It's been a long and rather successful journey and as you can see, I made 1000+ units in a few years with a decent yield. Lately I have specialised mostly in Hockey and student basketball and made over 250 units with a yield around 125%, however football / soccer ramains my primary sport.

I guarantee you around 30-50 profitable picks per month with well written previews at least a few hours before a game start. Bettingsite is under construction, so for now you will get picks on e-mail. One month subscription costs 25€/35$, so if you're interested, send me an e-mail to andrej.simonic@gmail.com for further information.

Discuss in forum (2 entries)

Wow, now this must be the best of the day in Championship in my opinion. We have two sides without a win in the first three rounds and I doubt will see another round without one.

Leicester had way tougher schedule so far and despite the fact they got only one point, it doesn't reflect the way they played. They lost the opening game away at Palace by 3-2 just because they played a really bad first half, when they were trailing by 3-0. They took the initiative in the second half just to come short in the end by one goal. Then they hosted one of the best teams in this league, Middlesbrough and took a deserved point. This game was full of chances but the score somehow remained 0:0. In the last round they visited the other promotion candidates Burnley and lost by 3:0, however the result was unfair as Leicester were by no means that much worse.

Reading on the other hand got two points from the first three games, but they played twice at home and are not even nearly close to what they were in the last part of last year's season. In the opening game of the season they were defeated at home by Scunthorpe by 2:1. Though it may be a bit undeserved, visitors still are rated as one of the relegation candidates. Then they got a point away against Portsmouth in a game which resulted as 1:1 draw. We all know what is going on with Portsmouth, who is in deep financial troubles and had to sign youngsters not to get penalized, so there is nothing to brag about here as well. In the last round they shared the points at home against Forrest, who as well started badly, but were very lucky to get a point in this match, as Forrest were clearly the better team that day.

Now, Leicester won many games at home last year and I am sure they will be the same this year, once they get things in order. I have a strong feeling it will be today, as they recover two important players. Their top striker Fryatt expected to return from injury and that is just what they need. He scored 12 goals last year and 27 a year before that when they got promoted. Another important part is Dudley Campbell who returns for this match, as he missed out a cup game this week due to illness. He scored 14 goals last season for Blackwell and Leicester. Another plus is that midfielder Lloyd Dyer could be back as well. He was regular last two seasons since he has joined the club.

Reading on the other hand have several players doubtful and several who certainly won't play. Left-back Marcus Williams, midfielder Jem Karacan and winger Michail Antonio all picked up knocks in a cup game this week and are rated as doubtful. Right-back Julian Kelly is out injured, as well as first-choice right-back Andy Griffin.Midfielder Jay Tabb is out after he had ankle surgery this week and is joined on the treatment table by club captain Ivar Ingimarsson (hamstring) and Chris Armstrong (knee).

Hosts are hungry for points and the return of their best striker is just what they needed. They deserved more points the first three rounds but were somehow unlucky. They shot 32 times on opponents goal and 17 of those were on goal. They had 32 corners in the first three games! Reading on the other hand are in all kinds of trouble, missing most of the back line and midfield and they will find it very hard to cope against motivated Leicester today. This is not some sort of an attempt to get more points, cause I don't really care about that much, but I see a great value in these odds cause I expect a 2:0, 3:0 or 3:1 result here! First home win of the season for the Leicester is my call!

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

First let me say that this odds are too high and they are mostly set due to a good performances of Lustenau who were set as the main relegation candidates before the season. However they are now 4th in the league with 3-4-1 record which is very good. They are actually second best away team with 3-1-0 away record, but when you take a closer look you will find out that they beat Gratkorn, Hartberg and Austria Lustenau. The first two are on the bottom of the league, whilst Austria isn't doing much better this year. Yes, they also took a point versus strong Admira, but the truth is they were very lucky to get it. St. Polten on the other hand improved performances, especially at home where they are 2-1-1 at the moment.After expected loss to Altach in the opening game, they won over Vienna and Gratkorn and shared points with St. Andra in a goalless game.What is more important is that two regulars return to the team after injuries. Attacker Wojtanovich, who was regular last season with 10 goals returns after injury. Midfielder Thuraurer is also back and he already scored 2 in 7 games this year, whilst he was regular player last season as well. Coach has now pretty much almost full team to choose from. St. Polten are mostly home team and  today I set them as bigger favorites than these odds suggest. They played perfectly in the previous round when they lost away at Altach (2:1) and were really unlucky not to get at least one point. Visitors surprised everyone with their recent non-losing streak, but I believe it will end tonight and I have to go with home win here. Odds are to good to miss!

Good luck!

These two teams are going into a different direction at the moment. Inverness who returned back to the premier league this season are playing well, having picked up 3 points in the first two games. The loss came against Celtic by 1-0, so this is no big deal. In the second round they demolished Dundee Utd. away from home by 4-0 and won a cup game several days ago at home when they beat Peterhead by 3:0. Hamilton on the other hand are in the bottom of the league losing both games by 4-0 and also lost a cup game against 1st league team Raith Rovers by 1-0. So they conceded 9 goals in the first three games of the season and scored none. Their confidence is surely not high and they also have internal problems, as two players already left the club and have few others out injured. Experienced midfielder Jack Ross, who played the first two games of the season decided to move on and left the club. He was a regular player at St. Mirren in the last two seasons. Midfielder Stuart Elliot went to Doncaster. He played only 7 games for Hamilton last season, so he isn't that important. They will still miss two centre backs, as Elebert and Mcloughlin are both struggling to overcome their injuries. Both were regulars last season. Another regular defender Canning is suspended, whilst captain of the team Neil is still out. So three regular defenders are out and 2 midfielders as well. Inverness should be able to take advantage from the current situation and I expect them to win this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they win by more than just one goal.

Good luck! 

Here is the match between the leaders of the group and a team who is currently in the last place. HV71 is my favorite to win the group and as they play poor Tappara today and TPS in the last round they have a great chance to win the first place and earn some extra money. HV71 have 5-0-1 record with impressive 30:12 goal difference, despite playing 4 times away from home. They have several players out, but it doesn't matter cause they won most of the games with great ease without them. Tappara on the other hand is an average Finnish team and they are without chances to progress from this group with only one point after 6 games (0-1-5 10:24 record). They actually lost all six of them, but got a point against Salzburg at home after losing in overtime. They will play remaining two games away from home against Swedish teams, so there isn't much chance for them to get any more points. 

HV71 has been by far the most efficient team with 5 goals per game per average, whilst Tappara is second worst in conceding with exactly 4 goals per game per average. Tappara lost 4 out of 6 games played by more than 2 goals difference, HV on the other hand won 4 out of 6 times by more than two goals difference. Frolunda who won over Tappara by 4:1, lost at home to HV by 1:8, Zurich who won at Tappara by 6:3, lost at home to HV by 1:5 and so on ... Average team from Finland have no chance against arguably the best team in Sweden over the past few years and I expect another big win for the hosts. With today's win they are almost secure to win the group.

Good luck!

Discuss in forum (4 entries)

I've seen all games this season when Tottenham was involved and I've seen 2 games when Wigan was involved. Odds may be set about right looking from bookies perspective, but I still find this odds valuable. Tottenham demolished YBB by 4:0 and as expected qualified to the CL group stages after 50 years. They drew the opening match against Man. City (0:0) and won away against Stoke (1:2). A draw versus Man. City is everything but deserved, as they could have killed the game in the opening 20 minutes. Unfortunately for Tottenahm, City has Joe Hart who saved not only few, but several incredible shots and in the end they shared the points. A win over Stoke was a bit undeserved, but still they managed to win it, though they were mostly focused on the upcoming game against the Young Boys. Well three points count and that is important. They still have a few players out, but they have a deep squad to choose from. Gareth Bale is impressive and is one of the best in the league in the moment, Crouch scored a hat-trick and YBB and that should boost his confidence. Defoe returned after injury and scored against YBB, though his goal should have been disallowed, due to a hand play. 

Wigan on the other hand started season in the worst possible way, losing away at Blackpool by 4:0 and at home against Chelsea by 6:0. They also played on tuesday when they won over Hartlepool in a cup game (3:0). This has surely boosted their confidence, but since they lost the first two games by such a shameful scores, coach had to put his best eleven against the league 2 team. Wigan was also one of the worst last season when playing away with a poor 2-3-14 record and 19-55 goal difference. Yeah that's right, they conceded 55 goals away from home and have already conceded 10 in the first two league games of the season, so we can't say things have changed much, or even better, at all. They were actually the worst away team when it comes to conceding last season - 55 goals = 2.9 goals per game. Another problem is that they looked pretty much toothless in attack. Rodallega seems to be out of form, whilst N'Zogbia has his mind set on transfer.

Anyway, this should be one way traffic in my opinion and I can see hosts scoring at least 2-3 goals on Saturday if not more. If they repeat performances from their home games against City and YBB, we might see another trashing. Since the year 2006, Tottenham won 4 out of 5 games at home against Wigan and all those wins were by at least two goals. They also won both encounters last season - 9:1 at home and 3:0 away. Wigan will have many problems this season staying up in this league and it wouldn't be a surprise seeing their coach being sacked in the near future. Tottenham to get another comfortable win is the best choice here IMO - let's say 4-1 for the Toffies.

Good luck! 

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

This offer from William Hill is a must take for me. Let's see why...Maribor lsot the first game by 3:0 away in Palermo and now they've got nothing to lose. They were at least equal team until the unfortunate 35th minute and created a few chances that should have been taken. After red card and a penalty for Palermo there was nothing much that could be done. Now they need a miracle 3:0 result, which is pretty much impossible, but I still believe they can win this game by one goal or in the worst case get a draw. Maribor must attack from the start and they musn't concede, which is mission impossible IMO. I expect both teams to score at least once and I have no idea why this odds are set this high. Maribor is an attacking team and they have several players who can score easily, especially Ilicic. Palermo can play on counter attacks, cause Maribor will leave much space for that and they will score as well, especially since goalkeeper Pridigar is suspended due to his red card in the first game. If or should I say when Palermo scores, they can concede 4 goals and would still qualify. Results like 2:1, 2:2, 1:2, 3:2, 2:3 are the most probable outcomes IMO. Both to score and over 2,5 goals is my call! 

Good luck!

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

Both teams have no chances to progress, after having 2/4 and 2/5 records but still every win counts and they will be motivated for sure. Anyway, I have a feeling that Hungarians are being underestimated by the bookies when playing at home. True, Ukrainians are better team of the two overall, but still they haven't proven much in these qualifications so far, especially away from home. They won the encounter over Hungary in Ukraine (80:71), but it was quite equal game until the third quarter, when the hosts stepped up to get a 5-8 point lead. Away they lost all three games so far - against GB by 14, against Macedonia by 16 and against Bosnia by 10 points. Hungarians played well at home and won 2/3 games so far, losing only the opening game against GB (81:92), but overall the game was pretty much tied until the last quarter. Then they won the game against Bosnia (74:70), but the truth is they dominated the game from the beginning and took the lead by 16 points at HT. Later they got complacent and Bosnians took the initiative to reduce the loss to only 4 points. They were once against set us underdogs against Macedonia, who is probably the best team in the group, but still managed to win over them (85:82). After a bad start in the first period, they took the initiative and led the game until the end. If I remember it right they were up by almost 15 points at some stages of the game. Anyway, now they are set as favorites by 3-4 points against Ukraine and I believe they should beat the spread. Visitors were no good away from home in their first three games and they will also have to play without a very important player, a 24-year-old center Oleksiy Pecherov, who tore a ligament in the pinkie finger of his left hand in last week's game against FYR of Macedonia. The Center is averaging 13.8 ppg and a team-high six rebounds per game, so this will be a blow for the visitors. He contributed 15 points in their win over Hungary at home. Medium stakes on a home win here!

Good luck!

Discuss in forum (3 entries)

HV71 are currently 2nd in the group with 12 points and 4-0-1 record. That is impressive as they played 4 games away from home and still have several players out injured. Karpat on the other hand are topping the group with 13 points from 5 games. However they played 4 out of 5 games at home and they had much easier opponents so far. They are also missing one important player, who is out injured. Visitors have a good team and have added few good players before the season, however playing against current Swedish champions and the best team in Sweden over the past several years, will be something else. Odds are to good to miss IMO and I expect HV to win this group easily, as they will play the remaining three games at home against teams from Finland. Winner of the group gets a good amount of money, so there should be enough motivation.

Good luck!

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

Helsingborgs need a win to get back on the top of the league. They are superb at home with 8-1-0 record and 18:8 goal difference. After two consecutive draws they will be fired up to get all three points today. Trelleborgs on the other hand is playing like a different team after the break. They won 4/5 games and gathered enough points to get out of the relegation zone. They scored in both games away from home and four out of 5 games resulted as more than 2 goals. Each team has few important missings for this game. Hosts will be without two regular defenders and one midfielder, whilst visitors also miss 2 regular defenders and one attacker. Games between the two were always exciting in the past and provided us with many goals. I don't see any reason why wouldn't it be the same this time, especially with those player out in the defense. I will also try small stakes on 2/1 HT/FT as hosts had to come from behind few times this season. Over 2,5 is my call!

Good luck!